India’s south-west monsoon to be above normal this year – IMD
This year’s south-west monsoon, spanning from June to September, is “most likely” to be above normal, according to M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
He stated that the seasonal rainfall is expected to be around 105% of the long-period average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5%. This means the rainfall will surpass the normal seasonal average of 87 cm.
However, regions such as Ladakh, the North-East, and Tamil Nadu are projected to receive below-average rainfall.
Ravichandran also noted that global weather patterns are expected to remain ENSO-neutral during the monsoon period. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole is also likely to stay in a neutral phase.
Rainfall Probabilities
Private weather forecasting agency Skymet recently predicted that India will likely receive normal monsoon rainfall, estimating it at 103% of the LPA, also with a ±5% margin of error.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), shared the following probabilities:
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26% chance of excess rainfall
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33% chance of above-normal rainfall
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30% chance of normal rainfall
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Only a 2% chance of deficient rainfall, effectively ruling out the possibility of a poor monsoon.
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