If low rainfall persists throughout the country which is now in a weak phase, might force the re-sowing of vital Kharif crops such as pulses, oilseeds, paddy, and coarse grains.
After a brisk start, the southwest monsoon winds have slowed in the latter third of June, making little progress after June 19.
Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana are yet to get substantial monsoon rain, whereas eastern, central, and southern India have received moderate rainfall. Tuesday was the ninth consecutive day of insufficient rain all around the country, indicating a concerning trend.
However, rainfall in the first three weeks of June was sufficient to deliver surplus rains across India, which is a positive indicator, and the agricultural ministry anticipates a record harvest.
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Rainfall totaled 179.4 mm across the country as of Tuesday, giving the month a 17 percent increase over the first month of the season.
According to scientists, while the weak phase is expected to last till the first week of July, rainfall should increase up after that and allow for regular rains across India.
SP Sivanand Pai, India’s head of long-term forecasting, at the Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that ‘Such strong and weak episodes are common during the monsoon season. While climatic circumstances are now unfavorable for progress, we foresee normal to above-average rain to return by the second week of July.’
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July is critical for Kharif crops since it produces one-third of the season’s rainfall. Crops will need to be re-planted if adequate rainfall is not received at the appropriate time.
Plantation number for crops such as soybean and cotton is trailing. While the former has only been planted at around a third of last year’s acreage, cotton has been reduced by as much as 64% in some places. Skewed rainfall has also had an impact on Cereals and Pulses.
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The monsoon has also bypassed Delhi, making it the only state that has yet to receive monsoon rains this season. It missed its regular beginning date on June 27 and currently has a 48 percent rainfall shortfall for the season. The current heatwave is expected to last until at least mid-July in Delhi. This season’s monsoon is expected to be slightly above normal, with cumulative rainfall at 101 percent of the long-term average.