Monsoon could hit a new peak this week as favorable features align-IMD
The monsoon is expected to reach a new high as it enters the second half of July, which is typically the rainiest month of the four-month season, with support from the West Pacific/South China Sea this week, likely culminating in the formation of a strong low-pressure area over the North Bay of Bengal, according to short-to-medium guidance from the India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Activity would be muted over Peninsular India, particularly the extreme South Peninsula, before returning to normal during the following week (July 24 to 30), when the South China Sea may tone down pitch by a notch, resulting in a cool-down in monsoon intensity over India and the majority of the rainfall confined to Central India (Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha).
Useful monsoon features
Meanwhile, on Monday morning, the IMD identified the monsoon-driving features as the main channel over land located south of its normal position, indicating active monsoon conditions. It is likely to maintain this alignment for the next four to five days. To the west, the offshore trough was nearly full-blown from the coasts of South Gujarat and North Kerala. A cyclonic circulation over the plains of West Bengal, as well as adjoining Jharkhand and Odisha, completed the picture by steering monsoon winds away from the sea.
Heavy to extremely heavy rain
A five-day forecast predicts heavy to very heavy rainfall in Konkan and Goa, Kerala and Mahe, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, and Gujarat. On Monday and Tuesday, isolated, extremely heavy rainfall is expected over Konkan and Goa, as well as the Madhya Maharashtra ghats, and on Monday, over Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, and Mahe. It will be heavily isolated across Vidarbha, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, North Interior Karnataka, and Marathwada.
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