According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), India will likely import 8.6 million tonnes (mt) of palm oil during the November 2021-October 2022 season, a 3,00,000-tonne increase from previous estimates.
In its November “Oilseeds: World Market and Trade” outlook, the USDA’s Foreign Affairs Service predicted an increase of 4,70,000 tonnes in palm oil imports by India to 8.5 mt in 2020-21. According to the report, the higher imports are due to the Indian government’s recent reduction in import duties.
According to the report, some global suppliers of palm oil have already increased their exports to India. Following India’s first wave of tariff reductions, palm oil imports more than doubled in August and September compared to the January-July 2021 monthly average.
The increase in demand has primarily benefited Indonesia, India’s top palm oil supplier. Indonesian exporters increased shipments ahead of their own crude palm oil export tax hike in September (CPO). According to the USDA, palm oil exports from Malaysia and Thailand to India increased significantly in August and September.
Global production of oilseeds
The USDA reduced its forecast for global oilseed production for 2021-22 as lower soybean output more than offsets gains in other oilseeds.
As per the report, lower soybean production in Argentina and the United States has been partially offset by higher production in India. The production gains are rounded out by rapeseed in Iran, sunflower seed in the EU, and cottonseed in Australia and Brazil. Global crush is up nearly 1 million tonnes due to increased production.
Lower US and Argentina soybean exports have more than offset higher Brazil exports and lower Canadian rapeseed exports, as processors hold more of the limited supply for domestic crush. According to the report, global ending stocks are down primarily due to lower soybean stocks.
According to the USDA, global oilseed production is up one million tonnes for 2020-21, owing primarily to a revision in Brazil’s 2021 soybean harvest. Overall, global oilseed trade has remained stable. Gains in nearly all oilseed crush increased global crush by 1 million tonnes.
soybean accounts for almost half of the increase, owing primarily to a rebound in Argentina’s September crush following two months of poor performance. Global oilseed stocks are rising as the economy improves.
According to the report, lower Argentina soybean stocks as a result of higher crush more than offset lower Brazil and China soybean stocks.
A meal high in protein
According to the USDA, global protein meal production is expected to increase in 2021-22 due to a larger crush. Protein meal trade is up, owing primarily to increased Indian soybean meal exports and Canada’s emphasis on producing and exporting rapeseed products rather than seeds.
It stated that overall protein meal consumption is little changed, while stocks are up primarily due to higher soybean meal stocks in Argentina and India.