IMD predicted normal rainfall in August, but also ‘above normal’ precipitation
On Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted normal rainfall in August, but also ‘above normal’ precipitation during the August-September period, indicating higher rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season, which could pose a risk to standing Kharif crops ready for harvest.
Addressing the media about the actual rainfall in July and the likely precipitation during the second half of the monsoon season, IMD Director-General M Mohapatra stated that rainfall over the entire country during August-September 2024 is most likely to be above-normal (more than 106% of the long-term average). The Long Period Average (LPA) for the August-September period is 422.8 mm.
Rainfall is below normal in some areas
However, he stated that many parts of northeastern and adjoining areas of east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra, and Kutch, as well as some isolated pockets of central and peninsular regions, may experience “below normal” rainfall (less than 94% of LPA).
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The IMD issued a separate forecast for this month, predicting that rainfall across the country will be “normal” (94 to 106% of LPA), with the exception of many areas in the southern parts of central and adjoining northern peninsular India, north-east and adjoining areas of eastern India, and some parts of the north-west and south peninsular India.
When asked about the possibility of more rains in September, he said they are likely to be greater than in August because ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are giving way to La Nina conditions.
Neutral IOD
According to Mohapatra, neutral ENSO conditions are currently prevailing in the equatorial Pacific region, and India’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) predicts that La Nina will develop around the end of August. The current neutral conditions of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to last until the end of the monsoon season, he said.
Rainfall across India in June-July was 453.8 mm, up 1.8% from the normal 445.8 mm for the period.
Mohapatra stated that the central India meteorological subdivision, which relies heavily on monsoon rainfall for agriculture, has received adequate rainfall for the third consecutive monsoon season, which is expected to benefit cotton, soyabean, and pulse crops in particular. However, some experts claim that above-average rains in September have previously damaged Madhya Pradesh’s soybean crop.
Though there has been a significant rainfall deficit in Haryana and Punjab, two key agricultural states, the current spell of rains and the possibility of a normal spell in the coming weeks may not pose a threat to kharif crops because these states are heavily irrigated.
Warning about “Wayanad”
Meanwhile, following the Centre’s statement that Kerala had been warned about heavy rainfall, the IMD chief stated that the weather bureau has been issuing regular forecasts for significant rainfall activity along India’s west coast, and a red alert was issued for Kerala early on July 30.
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On July 30, landslides hit Kerala’s Wayanad district, killing over 160 people. Home Minister Amit Shah said on Wednesday that the Kerala government ignored the Centre’s warning about a potential natural disaster in Wayanad due to heavy rains. However, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan claimed the IMD had only issued an “orange alert” for the district.
Vijayan stated that the district received more than 572 mm of rainfall, which was significantly higher than what the IMD predicted. However, according to Mohapatra, a red warning was issued in the early morning of July 30, indicating extremely heavy rainfall. Precipitation ranging from 120 mm to 200 mm is considered very heavy.
According to the IMD chief, an orange warning means “be prepared for action, and one should not wait for red warnings.” Similarly, warnings were issued for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, he added.
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