With five days left, the monsoon continues with a 7% surplus, making it the third best in the last four years.
With only five days left in the season, the monsoon continues to show a 7% surplus, making it the third best in the last four years if you follow the logic to its end. The monsoon withdrawal line is still stuck and could run into more problems because the Bay of Bengal is still active and the typhoon ‘Noru’ is helping.
As of Sunday, September 25, the sustained rain deficit in Uttar Pradesh has gotten better, with West Uttar Pradesh’s numbers going from -31% to -25% and East Uttar Pradesh’s numbers going from -31% to -31%.
The rest of the deficits are in East India’s neighboring states of Bihar (30%), West Bengal (24%), and Jharkhand (3%). (-21 per cent). As the monsoon season of 2022 draws to a close, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura have come up with a score of -27% in the North-East.
Chances of the monsoons’ leaving
The end of the monsoon in Rajasthan and Gujarat could spread to Punjab, Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh until October 4. However, rains coming in from the bay due to a piece of typhoon “Noru” coming from Vietnam and the rest of Indochina would stop this from happening from October 4 to 12. This is according to a forecast from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also said that a low-pressure area or cyclonic circulation is likely to form in the Bay during the first week of October. IMD’s numerical model said it could cross the coast of Andhra Pradesh on October 6 and head inland into the neighboring state of Maharashtra.
In fact, it has shown that there is cyclonic circulation in the West-Central Bay off the coast of Andhra Pradesh this morning (Monday).
Peninsular India gets some rain
IMD’s long-term forecast for the next four weeks, until October 4, called for scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rain in the East, North-East, and North Peninsular India. Aside from parts of North-West and South Peninsular India, most of the rest of the country is likely to get light to moderate rain here and there.
On Monday morning, a western disturbance moved into northwest India and caused a cyclonic circulation over Punjab. From this circulation came a trough that went across Haryana and Uttar Pradesh to South-East Bihar and could cause rain while they were watching.
East India may also gain
So, the IMD has predicted that the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim will see light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, and lightning on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the plains of Bengal, Odisha, Bihar, and Jharkhand will see the same on Friday.
On Monday (today), the same forecast is good for Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. On Monday and Tuesday, the same forecast is good for Meghalaya (today and tomorrow).