Global cotton production is expected to decline in the 2026/27 season, which began in October, as lower output in India, the United States and Turkey is likely to outweigh increased production in China and Australia, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In its latest monthly report on the global cotton market released on Tuesday, the USDA projected worldwide cotton production at 117.5 million bales (480 pounds each), down by nearly 500,000 bales from its previous estimate.
India’s output estimate reduced
China, the world’s largest cotton producer, is expected to produce 34 million bales, an increase of 500,000 bales from the earlier estimate, supported by improved yields.
In contrast, India’s cotton production forecast was lowered by 500,000 bales to 23.5 million bales due to unfavourable weather conditions. The United States also recorded a downward revision, with its production estimate reduced by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million bales.
Brazil’s production forecast remained unchanged at 19 million bales. The country continues to hold its position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Global cotton exports expected to rise
Despite the expected decline in production, the USDA raised its global cotton export forecast by more than 100,000 bales to 44.8 million bales. Higher export shipments from Ivory Coast and Egypt contributed to the upward revision.
Brazil is projected to export 16 million bales, followed by the United States at 12.3 million bales. Australia’s export estimate remained unchanged at 4.5 million bales.
Turkey’s import demand increases
Turkey’s cotton import estimate was increased by 300,000 bales to 5.3 million bales, reflecting lower domestic production and the resulting need for additional supplies.
On the other hand, Bangladesh’s import estimate was reduced by 200,000 bales due to weaker consumption demand. Also Read | Centre Doubles Bharat Rice E-Auction Target to 50 Lakh Tonnes Amid Rising Retail Prices
Global cotton consumption revised downward
The USDA also lowered its estimate of global cotton consumption by more than 300,000 bales to 122.7 million bales. The revised outlook indicates a reduction in expected demand in the international cotton market during the 2026/27 season.
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